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Anyone showing the Al Gore film, or speaking about global warming, should know, more than they obviously know from his film. this is from the Hawaii Reporter

Why 'Global Warming' is Not a Global Crisis
Special to the Hawaii Reporter
By Christopher Monckton, 1/22/2008 8:06:23 AM
I earned my Nobel Peace Prize by making the United Nations fix a deliberate error in its latest climate assessment. After the scientists had finalized the draft, UN bureaucrats inserted a new table, but with four decimal points right-shifted. The bureaucrats had multiplied tenfold the true contribution of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets to sea-level rise. Were they trying to support Al Gore’s fantasy that these two ice-sheets would imminently cause sea level to rise 20ft, displacing tens of millions worldwide?

How do we know the UN’s error was deliberate? The table, as it first appeared, said the units for sea-level rise were being changed. But the table was new. There was nothing to change from. I wrote to the UN that this misconduct was unacceptable. Two days later, the bureaucracy corrected, relabeled and moved the table, and quietly posted the new version on its Web site. The two ice sheets will contribute, between them, over 100 years, just two and a half inches to sea-level rise. Gore had exaggerated a hundredfold; the UN tenfold. Hawaii is not about to disappear beneath the waves.

The High Court in London recently ordered the British Government to correct nine of the 36 serious errors in Al Gore’s climate movie before innocent pupils were exposed to it. It was Gore who, in 1994, announced that Mars was covered in canals full of water. This notion had been disproved before his birth. It was Gore who recently spent $4 million of the profits from his sci-fi comedy horror movie on a luxury condo just feet from the supposedly rising ocean at Fisherman’s Wharf, San Francisco. No surprise that he and the mad scientists with whom he has close financial and political links are under investigation for racketeering -- peddling a false prospectus to investors in his “green” investment corporation by distorting climate science even after the UK judge’s ruling.

It is not so well known that the UN’s climate reports are also error-packed and misleading.

To begin with, the UN denies that global temperatures were warmer than today in the medieval warm period. It overlooks the dozens of peer-reviewed papers that establish this fact, and continues to rely on the bogus and now-discredited “hockey-stick” graph by which its previous assessment in 2001 had tried to rewrite history.

It was also warmer than today in Roman times, and in the Minoan warm period or Holocene climate optimum, when temperatures were warmer than today for 2000 years in the Bronze Age, firing the emergence of great civilizations worldwide. In each of the four previous interglacial periods, temperatures were 10F warmer than today’s. For most of the past half billion years, temperatures were nearly always 12.5F warmer than the present. So the warming that has now stopped (there has been no statistically significant warming since 1998) was well within the natural variability of the climate.

The only chapters in the UN’s 1,600-page ramblings that are worth close analysis are those which consider “climate sensitivity” -- how big is the effect of greenhouse gases on temperature? The scientific debate centers not, as the Greens try to suggest, on whether adding CO2 to the atmosphere will cause warmer weather (it will), but instead on how much warmer the weather will be. So the only variable that truly matters in this debate is lambda -- the “climate sensitivity parameter.” Here are just some of the UN’s errors and exaggerations in calculating lambda.

First and foremost, the UN’s crafty definition of lambda allows it to overlook the fact that the oceans -- 1,100 times denser than the atmosphere at the surface, and many times denser still at depth -- soak up a good proportion of any additional radiant energy in the atmosphere (see papers by Lyman et al., 2006; Schwartz, 2007). The oceans cancel a great deal of “global warming,” because the next Ice Age will arrive long before the oceans lose their capacity to take up heat from the atmosphere.

Next, the UN has unwisely repealed the Stefan-Boltzmann radiative-transfer equation, the fundamental astrophysical law that relates changes in radiant energy to changes in temperature. The entire debate is about exactly that matter. Yet in 1,600 pages the UN does not mention this crucial equation once. Result: the UN’s “no-feedbacks” value of lambda is way too high. As an eminent physics professor pointed out to me recently, if the UN were correct, global surface temperature would now be 20F higher than it is.

It gets worse. The UN’s computer models predict that in the tropics the rate of increase in temperature five miles above the surface will be three times the rate of increase down here. But 50 years of atmospheric measurement, first by balloon-borne radiosondes and then by satellites, show that the air above the tropics is not merely failing to warm at three times the surface rate: for 25 years it has been cooling. The absence of the tropical mid-troposphere “hot-spot” indicates that the computer models -- expensive guesswork -- on which the UN’s rickety case is founded are, in a fundamental way, misunderstanding the way the atmosphere behaves (Douglass & Knox, 2004; Douglass et al., 2007).

On top of the “radiative forcings” from greenhouse gases, the UN says the mere fact of temperature change will cause more change still, through what it calls “feedbacks.” The UN has hiked the feedback multiplier by more than 52 percent since its 1995 report, without quite saying why. Shaviv (2006) and Schwartz (2007) calculate that the sum total of all feedbacks is either nil or very small; Wentz et al. (2007) report that the UN has missed out two-thirds of the cooling effect of evaporation in its assessment of the water-vapor feedback; Spencer (2007) finds that the cloud albedo feedback, which the UN says is strongly positive, is in fact negative; Ahlbeck (2004, 2005) says the CO2 feedback has been enormously exaggerated.

I have mentioned a dozen scientific papers. I could have mentioned hundreds more that challenge the UN “consensus.” There has never been and can never be a scientific consensus on climate change. Lorenz (1963), in the landmark climate paper that founded chaos theory, stated and proved his famous theorem that the long-run evolution of mathematically chaotic objects like the climate cannot be predicted unless one knows the initial state of the object to a degree of precision that is in practice unattainable. Whenever you hear anyone recite the propaganda mantra “The Science Is Settled,” laugh at his redneck scientific illiteracy. The science can never be settled.

Schulte (2008: in press) reviewed 539 papers on “global climate change” in the scientific journals. Only one paper mentioned that “global warming” might be catastrophic, and even that paper offered not a shred of evidence for the supposed apocalypse.

Bottom line: a recent peer-reviewed paper (Lindzen, December 2007) says all the UN’s climate sensitivity estimates should be divided by three. We don’t have a climate problem. The correct policy to deal with a non-problem is to have the courage to do nothing. Don’t let your legislators in Hawaii waste time on this non-problem. The real problem of the 21st century will not be “global warming” but resource depletion, starting with oil. Let your lawmakers do some real work, and get to grips with that.


Gore predicts an imminent 20ft sea-level rise: but …

Gore does not believe his own prediction. He has bought a $4 million condo near Fisherman’s Wharf, San Francisco (marked “A” above).


The UK High Court judge’s verdict on sea level.

Zonal mean predicted atmospheric temperature change (ºC/century, 1890-1999), from two natural causes, three anthropogenic causes and a combined cause, simulated by the IPCC’s PCM model. The “hot-spot” signature of greenhouse warming is visible in (c) and (f) (IPCC, 2007, p. 675, based on Santer et al., 2003, & see IPCC, 2007, Appendix 9C).





Tropical mid-troposphere “hot-spot”: predicted (CCSP, 2006), but not observed (HadAT, in IPCC (2007).


Left panel: Surface global temperature data, 1979-2004 (HadCRUt). Centre panel: Satellite global microwave sounding unit data for 0 to 400 hPa (surface to 5 miles up), 1979-2004. (Christy et al., 2000, updated). Right panel: Radiosonde global temperature data for 850 to 300 hPa (1 mile to 6 miles up), 1979-2004 (Angell et al., 1999, updated). The UN’s computer models do not predict this steep real-world decline in the rate of global temperature change with altitude. Five miles above the tropics, temperature has actually been falling for 25 years.

Christopher Monckton of Brenchley is an international business consultant specializing in the investigation of scientific frauds. He is a former adviser to UK Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher and is presenter of the 90-minute climate movie Apocalypse? NO! He wrote this oped for Hawaii Reporter. He can be reached at mailto:monckton@mail.com and more of his studies and reports can be found at http://www.scienceandpublicpolicy.org

HawaiiReporter.com reports the real news, and prints all editorials submitted, even if they do not represent the viewpoint of the editors, as long as they are written clearly. Send editorials to mailto:Malia@HawaiiReporter.com


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GLOBAL WARMING

Here we go again, with humans beings causing the climate change. Last night on televsion I listened to the reporters, who do not do enough research telling the world that we are now causing the magnetic storms to get uglier. The hurricanes, tornadoes etc are increasing, all because of human beings.

Wired, ,page 044, April, 2008 has an article, called," Here Comes the Sun", essentially, the article points out that every 11 years the sun goes through phases, On January 3,2008 ,scientists discovered a reverse- polarity sunspot signaling the start of a new cycle. The predictions for the next 4 years are dire, but not due to human beings, due to the universe. Again, the purpose of this is not to stop us from cleaning up our act, but to be aware, that even when we try to enable climate change from our efforts, there is not much we can do to prevent what is coming. What we have to do is prepare for the change.

The Genome of the Soul

The book,The Genome of the Soul, just crossed my path, when I was reading, "Shift", the April edition on line. So, I decided to do some browzing, I was excited about the possibilities that are developing along the line of a genome of the Soul.

When I was a teacher, I often thought of how sad it was to have children in the class that could never really succeed to the level of the other "kids". This does not happen only with the intellectually challenged, but even with normal intelligence. I remember Virginia Durgin, who was a math whiz, in elementary school with me, every question , her hand shot up before I could even begin to think of an answer. So, I sympathized when teaching with the slow learners and tried to think of ways to give them success. Often I felt we were not doing them a service, by putting them in the classroom to experience difficulties they could not overcome.

Now, perhaps some educators will consider the possibility that we should train children to be the best they can be, with the skills and intellect they have to work with. Success has much to do with happiness, and perhaps the early training for success in classes to develop the intellectually challenged to be the best they can be, will lower the prison population. We need to stop being politically correct at the expense of our fellow human beings. It does not hurt to try to improve the quality of life we offer our intellectually challenged children, and adults, with the right education, an education they can benefit from, not a vacuum that they can not fight against to enter. Here is a link to some reading on the subject.

http://http://www.mindfully.org/GE/Genome-Secular-Soul-Mauron.htm